DAVY VIEW

Irish Continental Group (ICG) will report FY2019 results on March 5th. We are expecting a ramp-up in EBITDA over the coming years. While our FY2019 EBITDA forecast of €87m represents a big step-up on the disruptive 2018, this was below our start-of- year forecast of €91m as there was bedding down in the new ship schedule and some additional costs. We see our FY2020 EBITDA forecast of €99m as well underpinned, with investment in scrubbers and an additional container vessel likely to leave the group well set for 2020. We view the new builds as strategic for ICG’s long-term growth (comply with the 15% IRR investment target), while the capital will be financed from very attractive debt facilities. We retain our €6 price target.