DAVY VIEW

We have revised up our forecast for Irish GDP in 2020 to a -1.7% contraction but starkly split between an 11% expansion in the multinational sectors and a 10.4% contraction in indigenous sectors, among the hardest hit in Europe from COVID-19 restrictions. Bright spots include the housing market, where we now expect only a 1% fall in prices this year, and the resilience of the public finances. We expect the deficit will be €22bn, or 6% of GDP, in 2020 (versus 10% previously) - probably negating the need for explicit fiscal consolidation measures in October’s Budget.