DAVY VIEW

The November exchequer returns are heavily affected by the receipt of back-taxes from Apple. Beneath the surface however, the fiscal stimulus from Budget 2025 is evident. November is the most important month for all tax receipts and there was a modest underperformance relative to official expectations. However, timing factors affected this outcome and tax receipts continue to indicate strong economic growth this year. Spending increases, especially for public investment, were large once again. A somewhat lower budget surplus is now in prospect compared to the official forecast in Budget 2025 and should exceed €21bn.