DAVY VIEW

Irish Continental Group (ICG) has added a larger ship for the Dover-Calais route that, when combined with the space chartering agreement with P&O, will offer customers a sailing every c.30 minutes versus c.90 minutes currently. Back-of-the-envelope market share for Irish Ferries standalone could grow from c.20% to 25%. The larger ship will replace the short-term charter ‘MS Norbay’ on the Rosslare-Pembroke route. Although ‘musical chairs’ and won’t change current EBITDA estimates, we view it as a sign of serious intent in the longer term on a key international route, providing a better customer proposition. Because this is a purchase obligation, it will be added to the balance sheet at the half-year stage.