Economic
A smaller Budget 2027 to target improved spending efficiency
Despite Ireland’s strong fiscal position, the Summer Economic Statement included a surprisingly modest €8.5bn headline amount for Budget 2027. This was in line with December’s exchequer...
Budget 2027 headline package looks set to top €10bn
This week will see Ireland’s Budget 2027 fiscal parameters set, with a headline package of more than €10bn likely. However, we note some reasons that this amount overstates the likely...
Tech payrolls increased in May despite job-cut announcements
May employee payrolls data continued to indicate a favourable labour market for Ireland this year. At an estimated 2.61m employees – before likely upward revisions – growth looks on...
Transactions data augur well for Q2 new housing supply
An encouraging sign in today’s residential property price data was that transactions for new properties grew 19% in May. This augurs well for new housing supply in Q2. Property prices...
Inflation moderated in June despite services acceleration
June’s flash inflation reading was 3.3% in annual terms, above our forecast of 3.1% but still a moderation from 3.5% in May and 3.6% in the previous two months. Energy prices declined...
Volatile labour force survey at odds with steady payroll gains
We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1...
First-time buyer activity grew strongly again in March
One takeaway from today’s residential property price data for March is the continued strong growth in first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in March. This aligns with a key message...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Energy prices help inflation to moderate further in June
Headline inflation moderated to 2.6% for the UK in June, well below 3.1% last forecast by the Bank of England (BoE). Lower energy prices benefitted from last month’s ceasefire, though...
Revisions imply downside risks to 2026 UK GDP growth
This morning’s UK GDP revisions show an unchanged pace of quarterly growth in Q1 2026, but downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 2025 mean a lower annual pace of 0.9% to begin this year....
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
Another dovish inflation result in May undershoots forecasts
May’s undershoot for UK inflation supports our view early last month that the Bank of England (BoE) should not increase Bank Rate this year. Relative to its latest (April) projection,...
