Economic
UK growth weakens into 2025
Interest rate decisions in the US and the UK are the main event this week. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps, while the Bank of England is set to keep rates...
New forecasts: strong economic growth set to continue despite downside risks
We are updating our economic forecasts for 2025 and extending the horizon out to 2026. Available details for this year indicate that growth momentum has picked up, helped by rising...
Budget stimulus obscured by Apple back-taxes in November
The November exchequer returns are heavily affected by the receipt of back-taxes from Apple. Beneath the surface however, the fiscal stimulus from Budget 2025 is evident. November...
Ireland’s main incumbents set to form the next government
With counting for the last 12 seats soon to conclude, the general election in Ireland has seen a decisive result in favour of the two main incumbent parties. Fianna Fáil outperformed the...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
Ireland’s Exchequer begins to receive back-taxes from Apple
While October is not a crucial month for the Irish Exchequer, volatility of recent years continued with a near-trebling of corporation tax. This was driven by the first arrival to the...
Revising down our housing completions forecast for 2024
Despite an improvement on H1 2024, this morning’s update for housing completions in Q3 marks an inopportune pre-election result for the government. Output over the past four quarters...
Tax receipts continue to signal rapid economic growth
September’s tax receipts continue to support our view that the economy is on course to grow by at least 4.5% this year. However, the expansionary nature of Budget 2025 and higher...
Invest, invest, invest: Labour’s plan to restore UK growth
Labour’s first Budget since 2010 was delivered this afternoon by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Higher investment has been facilitated by a new fiscal rule targeting a broader measure of...
Grounds for optimism about the UK economy in H2 2024
The UK economy was flat in June and grew 0.6% in Q2, in line with consensus forecasts. However, we believe there are grounds for optimism heading into the second half of the year....
UK services inflation slows in July
UK inflation was lower than expected in July, driven by slower services inflation, which grew 5.2% in year-on-year (yoy) terms. This supports the view that disinflation is progressing and...
Services inflation stays high at 5.7% in June
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) grew 2% year-on-year (yoy) in June. Services inflation has been in focus ahead of the Bank of England’s next monetary policy meeting on August 1st....
