Economic, Debt & Credit

Auction politics ramps up as Help-to-Buy expansion promised

Having seen Fianna Fail promise a €10,000 top-up to first-time buyers’ savings, Fine Gael has announced that it will expand the Help-to-Buy scheme to a maximum €30,000 rebate (from...

Irish CPI inflation picks up to 1.3%

Yesterday’s Irish Consumer Price Index (CPI) release showed inflation picking up to 1.3% in December. Excluding a temporary blip in April 2019, this is its strongest pace since 2012, driven...

Irish house price inflation accelerates in November

Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation rose to 1.4% in November, accelerating for the first time since early 2018, and it should pick up further in the coming months. So, our...

Irish general election called for February 8th

Ireland's next general election will be on February 8th, with Fine Gael struggling in the polls – albeit perhaps in a better position now that Northern Ireland power institutions have been...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019

Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

A little room for manoeuvre in March 11th Budget

UK public finance data showed borrowing of £55bn in the first nine months of the 2019/2020 budget year, up 8% but better than expected on robust tax receipts. Borrowing in 2019/2020...

All eyes on UK labour market data

All eyes will be on this morning’s UK labour market data for signs of a further slowdown in jobs growth, a key issue ahead of the Bank of England’s January policy meeting. However, the...

UK retail sales suffer sharp Christmas decline

Poor UK retail sales in December, down across the board, meant that Q4 saw the sharpest decline in two years, leading investors to place a 70% probability of a rate cut at the Bank of...

Bank of England moving towards a rate cut

Following dovish comments from several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members and yesterday’s poor UK GDP data, markets are now pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in January with...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...