Economic, Debt & Credit

Trade data show Ireland’s trade performance is resilient

On September 16th, Irish trade data for July still showed the export sector performing very well, with goods exports up 19% on the year. This reinforces our view that the defensive...

Irish GDP set for close to 6% in 2019

Ireland’s GDP rose by 0.7% in Q2 2019, up 5.8% on the year. Hence, we expect to revise up our current forecast for GDP growth from 5% currently towards 6%. Initial projections have...

Irish residential property price inflation accelerates to 2.3%

Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation data picked up to 2.3% in July towards our forecast for 3% growth through 2019. Dublin RPPI inflation turned negative for the first time...

Irish consumer sentiment dives in August

This morning’s ESRI/KBC Consumer Confidence survey for August shows a very sharp decline, down to 77.2 from 85.5 in July — now at its weakest level since 2013, no doubt reflecting...

Exchequer returns reassure but Brexit is key for Budget 2020

August’s extra returns suggest that there might be a little more leeway in Budget 2020, with tax revenues €120m ahead of target and spending inside expenditure plans. However, the...

Corporation tax receipts bounce back in June

The key news in June’s exchequer returns was a strong performance from corporation taxes — June is a key month for revenue collection with €2.4bn received, 7.9% better than...

Exchequer returns disappoint in May

The big news in May was a large shortfall in corporate tax revenues, which could be a timing issue. Thankfully, Central Bank surplus income and spending inside generous government...

Irish employment surges in early 2019

Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that employment rose by 1.5% in Q1 2019, up 3.7% on the year, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% in April. This is a far stronger pace than...

Will Draghi deliver?

We believe hawkish comments from some ECB governing council members have led markets to under-price the likelihood of a sharp stimulus today. The consensus is that the ECB will cut the...

Signs Brexit is weighing on UK jobs growth

Yesterday’s (September 10th) UK jobs data provided a bit more evidence that Brexit is weighing on jobs growth. However, with the labour market tight, the headline measure of UK pay...

July GDP data to show if UK on brink of technical recession

The key macroeconomic data point today is the monthly estimate of UK GDP for July. Given construction (45.3) and manufacturing (48.0) PMIs were well below the 50-no change level in...

UK election likely as Conservatives push through bill delaying Brexit

Overnight, the Conservative Party signalled that it will help push though Hilary Benn’s bill to extend Article 50 into law – putting the pressure back on Jeremy Corbyn to facilitate an...