Economic, Debt & Credit
Ireland and COVID-19 – update
Last week, the Irish government announced strict restrictions on business activity, social distancing and travel and also unveiled a further €3.7bn fiscal stimulus. Nonetheless, the hit to...
Irish business confidence collapses as lockdown tightened
This morning’s Bank of Ireland/European Commission Business and Consumer Pulse surveys paint a bleak outlook, suffering enormous one-month declines and falling to their lowest levels...
Common euro area debt instrument still a step too far
Equity markets closed up on Thursday (March 26th) despite news that US jobless claims surged to 3.3m, or 2% of US employment. Meanwhile, the Bank of England took no further action...
Mortgage approvals up 9% in February before COVID-19 impact
This morning’s mortgage approvals of €825m in February show healthy growth, up 9% on the year, bringing the total to €11.2bn over the past 12 months. Approvals to first-time buyers, up...
Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns
Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...
Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019
This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...
Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019
Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...
Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year
Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...
Sunak’s sugar rush Budget
Yesterday’s UK Budget giveaway was the largest since 1992, with £30bn (or 1.4% of GDP) of spending and tax cuts – leading to a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. The Office for Budget...
Bank of England cuts rates ahead of giveaway UK budget
The Bank of England has cut rates to 0.25% this morning, alongside reducing the counter-cyclical capital buffer to zero and announcing a new term funding scheme. This comes ahead of...
January’s retail sales point to rebound in UK consumer spending
After a sharp slowdown in H2 2019, January’s UK retail sales figures showed a rebound in consumer spending. Core sales volumes rose 1.7% on the month, suggesting that reduced...
UK labour market bouncing back
UK labour market data for December published today are expected to show a slight moderation in jobs growth, but this jars with recent UK PMI and Recruitment & Employment...
NTMA to issue new 15-year bond
The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...
DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines
The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...
ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive
ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...
