Economic
Downside risks to our Q4 new home completions forecast
While some seasonal cooling of residential property prices is typical for November, the slowdown for Q4 so far is noteworthy given major ongoing supply constraints. A decline in...
Trump continues to “flood the zone” with instability
The current US administration’s approach is now firmly ‘America First’ away from long-held bilateral cooperation. Aside from a renewed increase in uncertainty, further EU rearmament...
Growth in payrolled employees fell back to about 2% into Q4
We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are...
A need for higher housing starts to be the “new normal”
The Department of Housing has published housing starts data for December. While the 2025 total was disappointing at 16k, December’s 3k was by far the highest figure all year, and...
Housing output jumped 20% last year, meeting our forecast
Completions came in ahead of consensus and in line with Davy forecasts after a very strong seasonal Q4. Our approach takes the commencements profile of houses and apartments...
Exchequer returns point to a strong economy into 2026
December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
