Economic, Debt & Credit

Ireland’s unemployment rate steady at 5.8%

New Central Statistics Office (CSO) data yesterday (March 3rd) suggested Ireland’s labour market suffered no further damage in February after a sharp rise in jobless claims in...

Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 52.0 in February

This morning’s Irish manufacturing PMI at 52.0 paints a subdued picture, with output and orders falling for a second successive month – hurt by COVID-19 restrictions. Also, disruption...

Mortgage approvals record 11% positive growth in January

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show mortgage approvals of €823m in January, up 11% on the year. Although this shows the pace of catch-up in approvals...

Card spending down 18% in January as third lockdown felt

Central Bank data show card spending was €5.1bn in January, down 18% on the year, a more severe negative impact than in the second lockdown in November but roughly half that in April....

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Sunak’s budget to put off difficult choices for now

Tomorrow’s UK Budget looks set to be as focused on extending COVID-19 supports such as the furlough scheme and stamp duty holiday as signalling tax rises will be required to...

Borrowing figures give Sunak a little more room for manoeuvre

This morning’s UK GfK Consumer Confidence data show another improvement – households likely buoyed by the vaccine rollout. However, January’s retail sales data show that the impact of...

UK GDP contracted by 9.9% in 2020

UK GDP data released this morning show a 1% gain in Q4. The temporary re-opening last month and manufacturing orders brought forward ahead of the Brexit deadline helped a strong 1.2%...

RICS survey points to house price falls continuing in H1 2021

The main UK house price indices fell in January for the first time in over six months, signalling the froth in the market is subsiding ahead of the expiration of Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...