Economic
This week: ECB forecasts, US payrolls revisions and UK GDP
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week and updated staff macroeconomic projections are also due. Annual revisions to US payrolls for the year to...
Consumer spending and new homes driving growth this year
Macroeconomic data released this week are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy is growing strongly this year. The most reliable gauge of consumer spending...
Population meets our forecast; well above official projections
Ireland’s population rose 1.5% in the year to April 2025, reaching 5.46m and matching our long-standing forecast. The result is above the baseline post-Census 2022 projection of 1.3%...
Ireland’s 2025 population data highlight a quiet week
August ends with a relatively quiet week, with limited top-tier data releases scheduled. We expect Ireland’s population and migration data for 2025 will show a population of 5.46m, or a...
Record employment in Q2 despite tariffs uncertainty
Despite widespread fears that tariff-driven uncertainty would lead to a notably weaker Irish economy, Q2 saw a record level of employment above 2.8m for the first time. The...
Residential property prices rise strongly again in June
Irish residential property prices grew strongly once again in June, in line with an established seasonal pattern. The volume of transactions has been boosted considerably this year by...
A new record month for corporation taxes in June
Corporation tax continued its year-to-date pattern of extreme volatility in June, more than compensating for weaker receipts in May. This augurs well for full-year 2025 receipts since...
Consumer spending enters 2025 on a strong footing
The Irish economy began 2025 in good shape. Tailwinds from strong labour demand have been helped along by lower interest rates and a decline in headline inflation, which remains the...
Another month, another adverse inflation result
This morning’s UK consumer price inflation (CPI) result further weakens the case for easing this year until there is evidence that disinflation has resumed. Prices grew faster than...
Growth outperforms forecasts again in Q2
Despite widespread expectations that the UK economy would struggle this year as a result of Labour’s Budget last autumn, growth has been stronger than expected in the first half of...
A hawkish Bank Rate cut after an unprecedented second vote
As it did in August last year, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted narrowly for a cut to Bank Rate. This is despite solid economic growth, above-target inflation...
Faster June inflation weakens the case for two rate cuts in H2
UK inflation was rapid in June, especially for core inflation which grew 0.4% compared to May and double the consensus expectation of 0.2%. In annual terms, overall and core inflation of...
