Economic, Debt & Credit

CSO survey shows business conditions gradually improving

Yesterday’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) Business Impact of COVID-19 survey showed a modest improvement in conditions in August, with two-thirds of companies operating at normal...

Budget 2021 to provide additional fiscal support

The news that the October 13th Budget for 2021 will provide further fiscal support (focused on housing, health and the environment) is not a great surprise given we expect a deficit...

Irish government publishes ‘Living with COVID-19’ plan

Yesterday (September 15th), the Irish government’s ‘Living with COVID-19’ plan eased restrictions in international travel (dropping quarantine requirements for non ‘green list’...

Unemployment claimants fall at sharpest pace since August

Yesterday’s Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) claimant data saw the sharpest weekly drop since early August, down 9,959 to 210,000. This suggests a little more momentum in the...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

UK house price inflation accelerates to 3.7%

This morning’s Nationwide house price index, up 2% on the month and with annual inflation running at 3.7%, adds to the evidence that pent-up demand and Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday...

Rightmove provides further evidence of robust UK homes market

The UK housing market has seen an impressive rebound from COVID lockdown, with activity levels increasing considerably and now evidence of rising prices also. Waning of pent-up demand...

Latest RICS Residential Survey signals further recovery in UK housing market

The July Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Survey points to a further recovery in the UK housing market. Of specific support, not surprisingly, was the stamp...

UK data show extent of COVID damage

The data from the UK this morning show the extent of damage done to the UK economy from COVID-19 and the response to it. Signs of recovery can be seen clearly in construction...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...