Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish jobless claims start to fall at sharper pace

The acceleration in falling jobless claimants is encouraging, showing the third phase of the re-opening of the economy feeding into job gains in hotels and food services. Meanwhile, the...

Another week of Brexit negotiations

EU/UK trade negotiations added to sterling’s volatility last week, with conciliatory comments from Michel Barnier helping sentiment. However, Ireland’s EU Commissioner Phil Hogan struck a...

Real-time data show debit/credit card spending back at pre-COVID level

The latest daily/weekly data on the Irish economy suggest it recovered over the past week, with the highlight being debit/credit card spending only 4% below levels in early March....

Irish public finances still extraordinarily resilient in June

That Irish tax revenues have shown positive annual growth through both May and June is extraordinary, reflecting buoyant corporation taxes but also that the damage from COVID-19 is...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

UK GDP contracts by 20% in April

The news this morning that UK GDP contracted by 20% in April isn’t quite at the most pessimistic end of expectations but will probably lead many forecasters to revise down their...

UK claimant count surges in April

Yesterday (May 18th) saw France and Germany outline their proposals for a new €500bn European Commission fund to provide grants to EU countries hit by COVID-19. This morning’s UK...

UK GDP contracts by 5.8% in March

The news that UK GDP fell by 5.8% in March was not as bad as the 8% decline expected, but still points to an unprecedented 20%+ fall in activity in April given the lockdown was imposed...

Is the PEPP big enough?

The consensus is that no substantial change is likely at either today’s Federal Reserve or tomorrow’s ECB policy meetings. The key issue for Jay Powell is whether the Fed may loosen...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...