Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 52.2

The rise in this morning’s Irish manufacturing PMI to 52.2 in November is a substantial improvement on the month. The most striking feature was an increase in business expectations to...

Mortgage approvals continue sharp rebound in October

October’s €1.25bn of mortgage approvals are a fresh cycle high, up 23% on 2019, catching up following COVID-19 disruption. The average approval was up 5% to €250,000, evident of...

Ireland relaxes restrictions as retail sector open for Christmas

Ireland has relaxed COVID-19 restrictions, allowing the retail and services sectors to re-open from December 1st. Hence, GDP will rebound but, crucially, firms can through trade the...

Central Bank of Ireland warns on significant loan losses

Yesterday’s Central Bank of Ireland Financial Stability Review indicated that its economic forecasts would imply significant financial stress and loan losses but would still leave banks’...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Difficult choices posed by UK Spending Review to be put off

Today’s UK Spending Review will announce additional spending on infrastructure, health and unemployment supports, with no tax rises but a public sector pay freeze and a cut in overseas...

Boris Johnson faces difficult choices on public finances

UK public sector borrowing was £22bn in October, better than expected but still an eye-watering 1% of GDP and will deteriorate as COVID-19 restrictions are tightened. Facing a deficit...

UK recovery incomplete despite 15% GDP rebound in Q3

This morning’s UK GDP data show a sharp 15% rebound in Q3 2020 but with the recovery still incomplete — it is down 9.6% on the year. Furthermore, the pace of recovery slowed through...

Biden win may have shifted UK bargaining position on Brexit

Despite tough talk yesterday, Boris Johnson will still likely drop the elements of the Internal Market Bill on Northern Ireland that would threaten the prospects for both EU and US...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...