Economic
Politics tracker: Leo’s exit alters little on election timing
A new Taoiseach (Prime Minister) should not materially change the prevailing political dynamics in Ireland. The immediate focus across the political spectrum will be European and local...
Politics tracker
The outcome of the next election is now far from certain. While Sinn Féin remains in pole position to form a government, the rise in support for independents in recent months will make...
Budget 2024 announces €14bn package
The €14bn (2.7% of GDP) Budget package announced today is broadly in line with expectations. Core public spending will rise sharply, by 6.1% in 2024, as expenditure on health, housing,...
Irish Services PMI falls to 54.5 in September
This morning’s Irish Services PMI at 54.5 in September is the weakest reading since January, but still points to a solid pace of growth and compares favourably to the flash euro area...
Irish residential property prices rise for the first time in six months
Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June rose by 0.6%, the first gain since December after five consecutive months of decline. Prices rose by 0.3% in Dublin, breaking...
Irish Construction PMI falls to 45.6 in July
This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 45.6 in July, signalling a fresh contraction after stability in June, is surprising. The readings are not consistent with the recent pick-up in...
Residential property price and mortgage approvals data point to resilient Irish housing market
Taken together, this morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) mortgage approvals data and yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) point to the resilience of...
Irish Construction PMI points to activity improving in H2
This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 49.4 in May is still below the 50 no-change level but suggests that activity will pick up in the coming months. New orders rose for a fourth...
UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023
Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...
Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%
Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...
UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August
Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...
UK GDP contracts 0.5% in July
This morning's data showing that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in July reverses the sharp 0.5% gain in June. Overall, the UK economy has effectively flatlined over the past three months....
