Economic, Debt & Credit

Multinational sector still driving Ireland’s exceptional GDP growth

Not surprisingly, the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) breakdown of Ireland’s 6% GDP growth in Q2 2019 showed a buoyant multinational sector (+12%). Technology, business services and...

Finally some better news from the euro area

October’s euro area composite PMI at 50.6 was better than expected, revised up from 50.2, with France registering the strongest growth and compensating for contracting private...

Ireland’s unemployment rate falls to fresh low of 4.8% in October

Yesterday’s preliminary estimate of Ireland’s unemployment rate in October painted an upbeat picture, falling to 4.8%, with total numbers unemployed down 19,400 on the year to 117,300....

Irish Services PMI falls to seven-year low at 50.6

The puzzle facing Ireland’s economy is perfectly illustrated by yesterday’s buoyant exchequer returns, showing tax revenues up 6.7% on 2018, but with this morning’s October Services...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019

Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

Exchequer returns reassure but Brexit is key for Budget 2020

August’s extra returns suggest that there might be a little more leeway in Budget 2020, with tax revenues €120m ahead of target and spending inside expenditure plans. However, the...

UK jobs data could fuel speculation on Bank of England rate cut

Yesterday’s UK GDP data showed output up only 0.3% in Q3 2019, losing momentum through the summer months, so the economy will do well to record any growth in Q4. Attention will now...

Bank of England and Sajid Javid muddy the waters

Yesterday's Bank of England vote showed a more dovish Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with two members voting for rate cuts but the minutes still showing some tightening if UK GDP...

Little optimism in October’s manufacturing surveys

On November 1st, the UK manufacturing PMI (49.6) and US ISM (48.3) manufacturing surveys showed some improvement in headline readings. However, the UK reading was helped by export...

Do-or-die

We expect the EU will extend Article 50 to January 31st but with the option for the UK to leave at any time once it passes Boris Johnson’s deal. So the UK could still leave in...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...