Economic
Q3 hourly wage pick-up is likely overstated; GDP outperforms
We think the most relevant indicator in the quarterly national accounts is labour income given it is based on a hard-data source from administrative tax records. Labour income grew...
Household wealth set to double again by 2035
A new Davy report on ‘Wealth in Ireland’ shows household net wealth more than doubled since 2014. While we forecast a further doubling by 2035, long-term provision remains an issue for...
November likely to set a new record for corporation tax
This week includes a number of significant data releases for the Irish economy. A new record for monthly corporation tax (excluding last year’s Apple escrow receipts) is likely in the...
Reeves poised to deliver another tough UK Budget
Aside from further catch-up US releases this week, the UK Budget is the main focus in an otherwise quieter week for new economic data. Weaker retail sales in October have been...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
A slowdown in economic growth into autumn is evident
October’s exchequer returns were once again characterised by strong corporation taxes and weaker tax receipts elsewhere, albeit income tax recovered somewhat from an especially...
Flat transactions for new properties in July
Strong summer price trends continued in July, and we expect upward revisions to June could repeat. However, new property transactions were surprisingly weak in July; if this continues,...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
Household spending adds to stronger UK economic growth
The UK economy grew faster than expected in H1, helped by household spending and business investment. However, despite a favourable productivity performance, official forecast...
