Economic
Expecting cuts to UK growth and current spending plans
The main focus of this week’s release calendar is on the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement. Slower economic growth this year is widely expected, and higher borrowing since October’s...
Flat residential property prices in January 2025
Residential property prices were flat in January following a period of 19 monthly increases stretching back to May 2023. However, we expect this pause will prove temporary. Real wage...
Central banks grappling with stagflationary pressures
A busy schedule of data releases this week includes central bank meetings in the US and UK. Expectations for US economic growth and inflation have moved in a decidedly stagflationary...
Stagflation risks intensify for the US economy
In a relatively light week for economic data releases, attention will fall on US inflation expectations and consumer price inflation. Recession fears have increased at the same time as an...
Consumer spending enters 2025 on a strong footing
The Irish economy began 2025 in good shape. Tailwinds from strong labour demand have been helped along by lower interest rates and a decline in headline inflation, which remains the...
Expansionary Budgets add to a strong economy in 2024
The December Exchequer returns suggest strong economic activity in 2024, boosted by successive expansionary Budgets. Voted current and capital spending each grew faster than...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
Ireland’s Exchequer begins to receive back-taxes from Apple
While October is not a crucial month for the Irish Exchequer, volatility of recent years continued with a near-trebling of corporation tax. This was driven by the first arrival to the...
Government banking on growth to avoid future welfare cuts
There were few surprises in the Spring Statement as weaker growth and higher borrowing costs limited the Chancellor’s scope for new policies. Well-flagged adjustments to last...
Services disinflation boosts the case for Bank Rate cuts in 2025
UK inflation declined marginally in December, helped by services price disinflation. This marks an improvement on recent months, especially for a subset of non-volatile services (excluding...
Invest, invest, invest: Labour’s plan to restore UK growth
Labour’s first Budget since 2010 was delivered this afternoon by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Higher investment has been facilitated by a new fiscal rule targeting a broader measure of...
Grounds for optimism about the UK economy in H2 2024
The UK economy was flat in June and grew 0.6% in Q2, in line with consensus forecasts. However, we believe there are grounds for optimism heading into the second half of the year....
