Economic
All eyes on the White House ahead of tariffs pause expiry
The week ahead is relatively light for significant data releases, but the expiry of a pause on US “reciprocal” tariffs will be the centre of attention. Limited signals of progress to...
A pivotal week for the ECB
While market pricing has moved away from any further European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts this year, this week’s flash inflation data for June could be pivotal. As a result, a number...
Geopolitical tensions escalate as US strikes Iran
The main releases this week include flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data and US consumer sentiment data for June. However, markets may take their lead from an escalation of...
Tax data imply slower Q2 growth following a robust Q1
National accounts for Q1 and exchequer returns for May were published yesterday (Thursday June 5th). A surge in gross domestic product (GDP) and investment took place amid a huge...
A new record month for corporation taxes in June
Corporation tax continued its year-to-date pattern of extreme volatility in June, more than compensating for weaker receipts in May. This augurs well for full-year 2025 receipts since...
Consumer spending enters 2025 on a strong footing
The Irish economy began 2025 in good shape. Tailwinds from strong labour demand have been helped along by lower interest rates and a decline in headline inflation, which remains the...
Expansionary Budgets add to a strong economy in 2024
The December Exchequer returns suggest strong economic activity in 2024, boosted by successive expansionary Budgets. Voted current and capital spending each grew faster than...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
Services inflation rises back above 5% in April
As the Bank of England has long been pre-occupied with price changes for services, April’s 5.4% annual result will encourage a more hawkish direction for Bank Rate. Market pricing has...
Slower UK inflation paves the way for a rate cut in May
UK inflation declined to 2.6% in March. While still above target, the Bank of England is likely to take comfort from a slower path for services inflation compared to its latest forecast. A...
February GDP gains from a pre-tariff manufacturing boost
While growth in February’s GDP was well above expectations, this was driven by a pre-tariff manufacturing boost. Despite an otherwise hawkish backdrop, we now expect the Bank of...
Government banking on growth to avoid future welfare cuts
There were few surprises in the Spring Statement as weaker growth and higher borrowing costs limited the Chancellor’s scope for new policies. Well-flagged adjustments to last...
