Irish Economy
US tariffs decision set for Wednesday
In an otherwise busy week ahead for data releases, Wednesday’s decision on US tariffs by President Trump will limit scope for attention on much else. That said, non-farm payrolls on...
Expecting cuts to UK growth and current spending plans
The main focus of this week’s release calendar is on the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement. Slower economic growth this year is widely expected, and higher borrowing since October’s...
Flat residential property prices in January 2025
Residential property prices were flat in January following a period of 19 monthly increases stretching back to May 2023. However, we expect this pause will prove temporary. Real wage...
Central banks grappling with stagflationary pressures
A busy schedule of data releases this week includes central bank meetings in the US and UK. Expectations for US economic growth and inflation have moved in a decidedly stagflationary...
Stagflation risks intensify for the US economy
In a relatively light week for economic data releases, attention will fall on US inflation expectations and consumer price inflation. Recession fears have increased at the same time as an...
Escrow boost points to national income growth above 10%
The preliminary national accounts for 2024 indicate over 10% nominal growth in national income (GNI*), likely to result in a real growth rate above our forecast of 4.5%. These rates...
A good start for growth in 2025 despite downside risks
The Irish economy continues to grow strongly based on monthly Exchequer returns data for January and February. This is in line with our expectation from our latest forecasts in...
Economic policy uncertainty reaches a new series high
Geopolitical developments, driven by shifts in US trade and foreign policy, have driven global economic policy uncertainty to a new series high. This context will have an important bearing...
Euro area inflation and US GDP data in focus this week
The week ahead is relatively light for notable data releases, apart from inflation data in the euro area and economic activity in the US. Ireland’s average weekly earnings for Q4 and...
Ireland’s labour market remained strong in Q4 2024
The latest official estimates of employment show continued strong growth in 2024. Despite a small decline in Q4, employment growth had been strong in Q3. Key trends for population and...
