UK Economy
UK growth picked up in Q1 after Budget-driven weakness in Q4
The UK economy was stronger than expected in March, and after some downward revision to February’s result, Q1 growth was in line with consensus. This resilience is encouraging despite...
Escaping two lost decades
May 06 2026 07:00 IST/BST
Inflation meets consensus in March before likely falls in April
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) was in line with consensus for March, and slightly below consensus for core inflation. While services inflation remains higher than the Bank of England...
UK economic growth far above expectations in February
UK gross domestic product (GDP) was far stronger than expected in February. While some elements of the results look noisy, especially construction which jumped 1% on the month despite...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
