UK Economy
Bank of England holds and August retail sales improve
A busy week of UK economy news culminated in this morning’s retail sales result for August, which showed a reversal of July’s headline decline. While the UK economy could outperform...
UK inflation in August in line with consensus
While UK headline inflation increased above 3% again in August, the result was in line with consensus and driven by another jump in energy prices. Core inflation was steady at 2.6% for a...
Second-round effects still absent for the UK
UK results for the labour market this morning continue to show little or no evidence of second-round effects due to higher energy prices this year. Payrolls declined again in August,...
Energy price-cap increase sees inflation pick up to 2.9% in July
July’s inflation increased to 2.9%, matching the latest consensus. While expected increases to energy prices were the driving factor, the results were still mildly hawkish in our view. For...
Another dovish labour market update for the UK
As we expected, this morning’s labour market update was again dovish. Private sector wage growth continues to track below the Bank of England’s (BoE) estimate for what would be...
UK data likely to show ongoing disinflation in June and July
A busy week ahead for macroeconomic data releases includes a number of updates for the UK, Ireland and the global economy. We expect ongoing disinflation will remain evident for the UK...
Another strong H1 for UK GDP, but a weaker H2 is again likely
UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in H1, with business investment and manufacturing the standout results in Q2. However, strong H1 growth has been quite typical in recent...
Energy prices help inflation to moderate further in June
Headline inflation moderated to 2.6% for the UK in June, well below 3.1% last forecast by the Bank of England (BoE). Lower energy prices benefitted from last month’s ceasefire, though...
Revisions imply downside risks to 2026 UK GDP growth
This morning’s UK GDP revisions show an unchanged pace of quarterly growth in Q1 2026, but downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 2025 mean a lower annual pace of 0.9% to begin this year....
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
