UK Economy
Invest, invest, invest: Labour’s plan to restore UK growth
Labour’s first Budget since 2010 was delivered this afternoon by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Higher investment has been facilitated by a new fiscal rule targeting a broader measure of...
Grounds for optimism about the UK economy in H2 2024
The UK economy was flat in June and grew 0.6% in Q2, in line with consensus forecasts. However, we believe there are grounds for optimism heading into the second half of the year....
UK services inflation slows in July
UK inflation was lower than expected in July, driven by slower services inflation, which grew 5.2% in year-on-year (yoy) terms. This supports the view that disinflation is progressing and...
Services inflation stays high at 5.7% in June
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) grew 2% year-on-year (yoy) in June. Services inflation has been in focus ahead of the Bank of England’s next monetary policy meeting on August 1st....
UK GDP beats expectations for May
UK GDP bounced back from a weaker April, with month-on-month (mom) growth of 0.4% in May. This was double the consensus expectation for growth of 0.2%. At face value, there is no...
UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023
Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...
Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%
Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...
UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August
Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...
UK GDP contracts 0.5% in July
This morning's data showing that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in July reverses the sharp 0.5% gain in June. Overall, the UK economy has effectively flatlined over the past three months....
Signs that UK labour market is faltering won’t stop Bank of England hiking to 5.5%
This morning’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows UK employment down 207,000 (or 0.6%) in the three months to July, accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Total (8.5%)...
