UK Economy

UK claimant count surges in April

Yesterday (May 18th) saw France and Germany outline their proposals for a new €500bn European Commission fund to provide grants to EU countries hit by COVID-19. This morning’s UK...

UK GDP contracts by 5.8% in March

The news that UK GDP fell by 5.8% in March was not as bad as the 8% decline expected, but still points to an unprecedented 20%+ fall in activity in April given the lockdown was imposed...

Is the PEPP big enough?

The consensus is that no substantial change is likely at either today’s Federal Reserve or tomorrow’s ECB policy meetings. The key issue for Jay Powell is whether the Fed may loosen...

UK public sector borrowing deteriorates in March

This morning’s figures for March show COVID-19 starting to hit the public finances, with the UK borrowing £3.1bn, ahead of expectations, and spending up 12% on the year. This is before...

Sunak’s sugar rush Budget

Yesterday’s UK Budget giveaway was the largest since 1992, with £30bn (or 1.4% of GDP) of spending and tax cuts – leading to a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. The Office for Budget...

Bank of England cuts rates ahead of giveaway UK budget

The Bank of England has cut rates to 0.25% this morning, alongside reducing the counter-cyclical capital buffer to zero and announcing a new term funding scheme. This comes ahead of...

January’s retail sales point to rebound in UK consumer spending

After a sharp slowdown in H2 2019, January’s UK retail sales figures showed a rebound in consumer spending. Core sales volumes rose 1.7% on the month, suggesting that reduced...

UK labour market bouncing back

UK labour market data for December published today are expected to show a slight moderation in jobs growth, but this jars with recent UK PMI and Recruitment & Employment...

RICS survey points to rising house prices for first time

This morning’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey indicates that the UK housing market is experiencing a sharp rebound, led by London and the South-East, with...

Further signs that UK economy will rebound in 2020

Yesterday's UK Services PMI staged a sharp rebound to 53.9 in January, up from 50 in December. Services sector companies noted that reduced Brexit uncertainty and the December...