DAVY VIEW

Yesterday (June 13th), Smurfit Kappa Group and Westrock shareholders overwhelmingly approved the merger to form Smurfit Westrock, which starts trading on the NYSE on Monday July 8th. 2024 US and European box demand recovery is a supportive environment for Smurfit Westrock merger integration. Positively, June 2024 European containerboard prices rose €40/t (c.5% month-on-month (mom)), giving a cumulative €100/t (c.12%) 2024 year-to-date (ytd) increase and supporting European box price hikes. In H2 2024, we expect Smurfit Westrock S&P 500 index inclusion, with improving box demand and rising prices providing upside risk to Smurfit Westrock’s initial $400m synergy guidance. As confidence builds in Smurfit Westrock merger integration and synergy delivery, we expect a positive re-rating.