DAVY VIEW

We update our dsm-firmenich (DSFIR) model to reflect dislocation in the vitamin complex following the declaration of a force majeure from BASF on August 7th. For Q4, we estimate a temporary positive impact of c.€60m, which will mostly accrue to the Animal, Nutrition & Health (ANH) division. The duration of the outage is difficult to determine, with BASF assuming an initial start-up ‘not before’ January 2025. For Q3-24, we expect another good quarter of operating progress underpinned by the Perfumery & Beauty (P&B) and Taste, Texture & Health (TT&H) segments – we model Q3 EBITDA of €535m, +31% year-on-year (yoy) (previously: €527m). The net effect of our model changes lifts our FY24 EBITDA to €2,103m from €2,030m. DSFIR will release Q3 results on October 31st.