DAVY VIEW

Mondi Q3 2024 EBITDA fell 15% to €223m on weak packaging demand and elevated mill maintenance. Modelling sluggish packaging demand impacting Mondi pricing power, our revised €1.07bn 2024e EBITDA sits 8% below Visible Alpha consensus and our €1.15bn 2025e EBITDA (pre-Schumacher acquisition) sits 19% below the street. We expect that mill closures by some of Mondi’s more challenged European peers will ultimately boost industry-wide packaging pricing power.