DAVY VIEW

Given that the Halifax and Nationwide indices indicated house price inflation had accelerated to 4%, this morning’s RICS house price balance at +44% in August (a four-year high) isn’t a big surprise. Negative 12-month sales expectations indicate that estate agents are still cautious and see the recent rebound as temporary, driven by Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday ending in March 2021. That said, other RICS survey indicators suggest that COVID-19 has led to a structural shift in demand from smaller towards larger homes.