Jan 16 2020
Financials
Recent Research
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Irish banks
Irish banks’ 2020 outlook: buffers, Brexit and politics
Irish banks’ performance in 2019 was particularly impacted by their heightened sensitivity to the lower-for-longer rate environment alongside Brexit-related volatility. For 2020, we...
Year-end Document
2020: Irish economy stocks primed for performance
The factors that impeded the performance of stocks exposed to the fast-growing Irish economy in 2019 are now largely factored into forecasts. With valuations remaining attractive in...
Real estate
Context on affordability of Irish residential rents
Opposition political parties in Ireland have put forward a bill to freeze residential rents and issue a tax credit to tenants as a result of rent growth. To provide context on this...
Banks
UK banks pass Bank of England stress test; CCyB to increase from 1% to 2%
That all UK banks included in the 2019 Bank of England (BOE) stress test passed should not come as a surprise given the parameters were broadly the same as 2018. Increasing the...
Virgin Money UK
FY 2019 results: underlying in line; dividend suspended
Virgin Money UK (VMUK) has reported an underlying operating performance broadly in line with expectations, with better headline profitability and capital due to lower payment protection...
Banks
CBI research points to no change in mortgage macroprudential rules
The Central Bank of Ireland’s (CBI) research on the mortgage market does not give rise to any major surprises. The research follows recent comments from senior CBI officials who have...
UK banks
No respite in mortgage market; downgrading Virgin Money UK to ‘Underperform’
While spreads on new mortgages stabilised during Q3, we do not think this will persist and therefore expect net interest margins (NIMs) to remain under pressure, with few lenders...
Irish banks
Mortgage market reflection following Q3 developments
Mortgage market lending continues to grow and is on track to meet our 11% growth forecast for 2019 despite Brexit uncertainty and weakening house price growth. The market recovery...
AIB Group
Capital accretive portfolio sale
The non-performing loan (NPL) sale puts AIB on track to achieve its c.5% target by end-2019 as the Q2 2019 pro-forma ratio falls to c.6.2% (from 7.5%). The overall net 20bps CET1...
Lloyds Banking Group
A miss on other income and impairments but resilient NIM
This was a somewhat disappointing update given lower other income and higher impairment charges. However, and in contrast to peers, net interest margin (NIM) remains resilient at 2.88%....
