DAVY VIEW

The major focus of the draft Programme for Government is on infrastructure delivery, and this is welcome given Ireland's large shortfalls. The key number in the 162-page document is 300,000: the target for both the number of jobs and new homes by 2030. These targets would see a near-doubling of housing output compared to the past six years and a one-third moderation of employment increases over the same period, consistent with the view that economic growth will soon slow. However, we continue to expect strong economic and population growth this decade and estimate that 85,000 units a year are needed to address pent-up demand. A plan to extend the First Home share equity scheme to second-hand properties for first-time buyers will likely prove inflationary.