DAVY VIEW

December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results are likely to be related. Elsewhere, non-corporation tax receipts picked up towards 6% growth in Q4, well ahead of the Budget 2026 profile for growth of 4.3%. We think this is in keeping with the Irish economy reverting to stronger growth again into the new year. Spending growth was also relatively subdued again in December, suggesting upside risk to the Budget 2026 forecast of a €10bn surplus in 2025.