Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Jul 31, 2025
permanent tsb Group
H1 2025: strong business momentum
PTSB continues to demonstrate strong progress with good activity in customer lending and deposits and the commencement of its voluntary severance programme. Underlying profitability is modestly ahead (largely timing), with 2025 guidance reiterated and distributions expected to commence in 2026. As the outcome of its Mortgage IRB model review is awaited, PTSB continues to deliver against its stated objectives.
Heidelberg Materials
Solid Q2; full year guide maintained
Heidelberg Materials’ Q2 and H1 results are broadly in line with expectations, with solid delivery across most regions. Full-year guidance has been maintained, with management highlighting continued stabilisation in core markets. Execution on internal efficiency initiatives continues, with the Transformation Accelerator Programme progressing as planned.
Holcim
Double-digit underlying operating profit delivered in Q2
Following the spin-off of Amrize, the continuing Holcim business has reported solid Q2 results. Underlying recurring EBIT rose by over 10% year-on-year, representing a significant pick-up from the pace of growth in the first quarter (1.5% year-on-year). Updated guidance is for growth in underlying EBIT of 6-10% this year, which would represent a good achievement in the current environment.
dsm-firmenich
H1-25 adjusted EBITDA in-line; growth driven by Animal Nutrition & Health
DSM-firmenich (DSFIR) delivered an in-line EBITDA result for Q2-25. It is a mixed picture under the bonnet for Q2 with flat organic sales growth for Perfumery & Beauty (P&B) and 2% volume growth for Taste, Texture & Health (TTH) ex-synergies. Guidance language for FY25 is tweaked to reflect FX. We do not envisage any material change to our FY25 EBITDA forecast of €2,379m. The exit of Animal Nutrition & Health (ANH) is “advancing”.
Air France KLM
Q2 consensus beat; full-year outlook reconfirmed
Air France’s operating result of €736m (€223m above last year) resulted in a 9% beat to consensus estimates of €675m. Revenues were up 6.2% year-on-year (yoy), driven by higher capacity 4.2%, with higher unit revenues of 2.5% leading to margin expansion of 2.3ppt to 8.7%. The group reconfirmed its full-year outlook; FY25 consensus operating income €1,880m, Davy €2,018m. We do not expect to materially change our forecasts and anticipate upside to consensus numbers.
Lufthansa
Decent Q2
Lufthansa reported Q2 adjusted EBIT of €871m (Davy €844m, consensus €805m) and confirmed full year guidance. There is unlikely to be material change to forecasts. We note that there will be a Capital Markets Day on September 29th, which will look at the medium-term business strategy and outlook. A pathway for the group to achieve >8%, particularly in its mainline Lufthansa airline business, is needed as well as recognising over time the value of its world-leading Technik business.
Smurfit Westrock
Strong Q2 with full-year guidance maintained
Smurfit Westrock’s strong Q2 performance and the significant improvement evident in North America underpin the full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance and suggest that its sharp operating focus is yielding benefits. We expect the market to reflect positively on the company’s highlighting of “extensive opportunities” across all its regions given its proven track record of delivery.
