Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Nov 13, 2025
Grafton Group
On track for 2025 despite some easing in momentum
Grafton remains on course to register a good operating performance this year. The group continues to benefit from its diverse end-market exposure and the scope for investment afforded by its pristine balance sheet. However, trading remains subdued and evidence of a recent easing in momentum may prompt a slight downward tweak to 2026 operating profit expectations.
Flutter Entertainment plc
Some recent headwinds, but future growth prospects boosted by prediction markets
Q3 numbers came in largely in line with our recently revised estimates, with growth impacted by some unfavourable sports results and heightened promotional intensity in the US in the early part of the NFL season. Guidance has been downgraded for the full year in the US, but the two key elements of this are sports results and prediction markets investment. Both of these were largely expected. We believe Flutter has positioned itself very well to benefit from the opportunity in prediction markets and management commentary on the call that it expects to have the clear number one product by Q2 next year was notable. It has engaged with other stakeholders, including the tribes and regulators, and we do not anticipate any impact on regulated state licenses (outside of Nevada where it had no B2C presence). It has invested further in US growth in Q4 and commentary on recent momentum was bullish.
Persimmon plc
FY25 expectations confirmed
As with most of the peers, Persimmon has seen trading in the autumn slightly ahead of last year, although no material seasonal improvement has occurred due to budgetary concerns from customers. We believe these concerns should dissipate following the Budget, leading to a better outlook for FY26 across the sector.
Wizz Air Holdings
Q2 performance in line, H2 decline as anticipated
Wizz has reported a Q2 PAT of €285.1m, 8% ahead of median consensus of €264m (Davy: €280m) reflecting a 14.9% margin. RASK was soft in Q2 (-0.9%) while ex-fuel CASK improved, down 6% year-on-year (yoy), driven by operational performance and reducing disruption costs. Following the renegotiation with Airbus, the new airbus deal equates to a four-year CAGR of 6.9% in the number of aircraft and 11.7% in seats, assuming the return of the grounded planes. However, H2 will come with transitional inefficiencies ahead of the slowing of fleet growth. Full-year PAT consensus of €4m loss largely reflects the widely communicated headwinds coming in H2. We expect estimates to broadly settle at breakeven (Davy: €36.4m). We expect a Capital Markets Day at end of calendar Q1, which will set mid-term profit expectations.
